International Monetary Fund blog says Bab el Mandeb transits remain about half of pre attack levels and warns of prolonged growth drag

On the International Monetary Fund website, a Chart of the Week blog post highlighted that maritime and air transport disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East are creating lasting risks to global growth, even if an enduring peace is reached. Citing the April 2026 World Economic Outlook, the post says shipping and flight interruptions slow trade, raise supply chain costs, and hit tourism dependent and import reliant economies hardest, while consumers face higher prices for food and essentials and lower income households absorb the largest share. The analysis points to the Red Sea, where attacks on shipping that began in 2023 forced many vessels to reroute around Africa rather than use the Suez Canal. More than two years later, transits through the Bab el Mandeb strait between Yemen and Djibouti remain at roughly half their pre attack level. It says the outlook for Strait of Hormuz transits and regional air traffic remains uncertain, but a similarly slow recovery would extend the drag on growth well after the fighting ends and make transport network resilience a central policy issue.