The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published its Texas Employment Forecast projecting Texas jobs to increase 1.9 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 2.7 percent, up from the previous month’s forecast. The projection is based on an average of four models incorporating projected national GDP, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes. The Dallas Fed linked the upward revision to stronger employment growth in December and January, while flagging headwinds that could push outcomes toward the lower end of the band, including declining immigration, higher productivity, moderation in activity in its Texas Business Outlook Surveys, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty. The forecast implies 278,400 jobs added during 2026, taking employment to 14.6 million by December 2026; it also reported annualized employment growth of 2.3 percent in January and 2.2 percent in December (revised up), with the statewide unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3 percent in January and mixed moves across major metros.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 2026-04-03
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas lifts 2026 Texas employment growth forecast to 1.9 percent
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas raised its Texas Employment Forecast, projecting 1.9 percent job growth in 2026 within an 80 percent confidence band of 1.1 to 2.7 percent, implying 278,400 jobs added and total employment of 14.6 million by December. The upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected employment gains in December and January, though the Dallas Fed highlighted downside risks from declining immigration, higher productivity, softer Texas Business Outlook Survey activity, and elevated geopolitical uncertainty.