Ceres has published a report finding that climate driven extreme weather is already disrupting agricultural production and raising costs for food companies, while investment in regenerative agriculture could strengthen supply chains and protect profits. Its modeling indicates that, under 3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2060, climate events could cause price spikes two to six times higher than current levels for companies purchasing beef, cocoa, coffee, corn, dairy or soy. The report points to the coffee market as evidence of the financial exposure. South American droughts contributed to a 6.5% fall in global coffee production and a 36% increase in global prices in 2021, while Arabica prices in 2025 were 150% above 2020 levels. Practices such as no till farming and cover cropping could help stabilize supplies, reduce volatility and improve farms’ ability to withstand environmental shocks. The analysis estimates that major food companies such as Tyson Foods or General Mills could safeguard up to USD 500 million in annual profits through regenerative agriculture and greater producer resilience, although Ceres emphasizes that adaptation must accompany action to reduce companies’ contributions to climate change.
US Ceres report finds regenerative agriculture could protect up to USD 500 million in annual food company profits
Ceres finds that worsening extreme weather could drive agricultural commodity price spikes two to six times above current levels under 3 degrees Celsius of warming by 2060. Investments in regenerative agriculture could stabilize supplies and protect up to USD 500 million in annual profits for major food companies, but must complement climate mitigation.