In a new blog post, the European Central Bank (ECB) finds that policymakers’ speeches and interviews between Governing Council meetings can generate market movements comparable to formal monetary policy announcements, particularly in medium-term and long-term interest rates. The analysis uses a new database covering 304 formal announcements and about 5,000 public communication events from January 1999 to early 2024. Although a smaller share of inter-meeting events produced significant reactions than the 45% recorded for formal announcements, their frequency generated substantial cumulative effects. More than 300 inter-meeting events significantly moved the Euro Stoxx 50, producing cumulative movements of 273 percentage points, compared with 117 formal announcements and 98 percentage points. Cumulative effects on the two-year overnight index swap rate were similar at 681 basis points for inter-meeting events and 718 basis points for formal announcements, while inter-meeting effects were up to twice as large at longer maturities. Incorporating these communication events also produced more precise estimates of monetary policy transmission, showing clearer declines in inflation and increases in unemployment following an unexpected tightening.
2026-09-24European Central Bank
European Central Bank finds inter-meeting communication can move markets as much as formal policy announcements
The European Central Bank finds that speeches and interviews between Governing Council meetings can move financial markets as much as formal policy announcements, especially at longer interest-rate maturities. A new database covering about 5,000 inter-meeting events also provides more precise estimates of how monetary tightening affects euro area inflation and unemployment.