The Central Bank of Aruba has published its Ease of Lending Survey showing that commercial banks remained mildly positive on credit conditions in the second half of 2025, with sentiment improving slightly in the fourth quarter. The unweighted credit conditions index rose to 102.1 in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 101.9 in the third quarter, reversing the earlier decline, while the gain was driven by a firmer future credit conditions index that increased to 101.9 from 101.6, particularly for business loans. Current credit conditions were unchanged at 102.2, and the weighted index also rose, to 102.0 from 100.9, although it remained slightly below the unweighted measure, indicating larger banks were somewhat less optimistic than smaller banks. The survey points to a mixed set of demand and supply drivers. For current lending conditions, car purchases were the main factor on the individual loan demand side, with resident car loans up 36.6% at end-December 2025 from a year earlier, while commercial real estate and capital investment supported business loan demand and loan stock related to real estate, renting and business activities rose 26.9% during 2025. On supply, a changing economic outlook became the most relevant factor for individual lending, while sector-specific risks and risk appetite gained importance for business lending. Excess liquidity at commercial banks remained high at Afl 917.9 million at end-December 2025, down from Afl 936.0 million a year earlier. Credit pricing became more relevant in loan terms, although the weighted average rate on new individual loans was broadly stable at 6.0% in the fourth quarter from 6.1% in the third quarter, while the rate on new business loans declined to 5.9% from 6.3%. Looking to the first quarter of 2026, banks expect stronger individual loan demand from cash flow shortages and stronger business loan demand from commercial real estate. They also expect a changing economic outlook to play a larger role in individual loan supply, and sector-specific risks and risk appetite to matter more for business loan supply, alongside somewhat greater importance for credit pricing and certain lending terms.
Central Bank of Aruba2026-06-16
Central Bank of Aruba reports slight improvement in fourth quarter 2025 credit conditions led by stronger business loan outlook
The Central Bank of Aruba’s Ease of Lending Survey showed a slight improvement in credit conditions in the fourth quarter of 2025, with the headline index rising to 102.1 from 101.9. The increase was driven by a stronger outlook for business loans, while current conditions stayed flat. Banks expect commercial real estate and household cash flow needs to support demand in the first quarter of 2026, with economic outlook and risk factors becoming more important on the supply side.