The Central Bank of Colombia published a “Borradores de Economía” working paper that develops national and regional indices of economic sentiment and uncertainty using text mining of economic news, positioning them as complementary, near real-time signals for short-term macroeconomic analysis. The paper constructs the indices from national and regional economic news published in digital media, counting positive and negative words in each item based on a predefined dictionary and aggregating results by region and for Colombia overall. Empirical tests suggest the indices behave as leading series and show statistically significant relationships with monthly macro variables; they also pick up key episodes including the post-pandemic reopening, the 2021 National Strike and a demand slowdown amid high inflation. When incorporated into conventional forecasting models, the indices deliver robust improvements in real-time predictions of Colombian economic activity. The central bank notes the “Borradores de Economía” series disseminates provisional research by staff (sometimes with external collaborators) and does not represent the views of the institution or its board.
Central Bank of Colombia 2026-01-01
Central Bank of Colombia publishes working paper proposing news-based sentiment and uncertainty indices for Colombia
The Central Bank of Colombia released a working paper developing national and regional economic sentiment and uncertainty indices using text mining of economic news, which serve as near real-time signals for short-term macroeconomic analysis. These indices, constructed from digital media, show significant relationships with monthly macro variables and improve real-time predictions when used in forecasting models.