The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina published its latest GDP nowcast for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, alongside inflation estimates for the first half of 2026. The nowcast keeps annual real economic activity growth at 2.1% in Q4 2025 and projects annual real GDP growth of 1.9% for 2025, while the preliminary estimate for Q1 2026 also puts annual real GDP growth at 2.1%. High-frequency indicators are not signalling an acceleration in activity at the start of 2026, with services the dominant contributor to Q1 2026 growth and manufacturing constrained by weak external demand and higher production costs. For inflation, headline inflation is estimated at 3.5% and core inflation at 4.2% in Q1 2026, with the headline figure revised down from 3.8% mainly due to a smaller contribution from food price increases; domestic food prices have not fully tracked international trends recently. Headline inflation is expected to rise to 3.9% in Q2 2026 due to higher energy prices and spillovers to other goods and services, with the central bank flagging a material risk of an upward revision in a subsequent nowcast round because of heightened geopolitical risks.
Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina 2026-03-27
Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina nowcasts 2.1% GDP growth in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 and revises Q1 2026 inflation to 3.5%
The Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina released its GDP nowcast, maintaining annual real GDP growth at 2.1% for Q4 2025 and projecting 1.9% for 2025, with Q1 2026 growth also at 2.1%. Services are driving Q1 2026 growth, while manufacturing faces challenges from weak external demand and higher costs. Headline inflation is estimated at 3.5% for Q1 2026, revised down from 3.8%, but expected to rise to 3.9% in Q2 2026 due to higher energy prices and geopolitical risks.