The Central Bank of Russia has published an analytical note with an econometric model to compare prices in the new and existing housing markets on a like-for-like basis. Its analysis indicates the gap was 9% by early 2026, or 18% when renovation costs for resold new builds are included, and concludes that the regulator’s stricter capital requirements and direct limits on mortgages with down payments below 20% are justified. The model adjusts for factors including the construction date, property class and apartment size. That produces a much smaller gap than Rosstat’s average price data, which showed a 52% difference at the end of the first quarter of 2026. The note attributes the wider headline gap to the higher quality of new housing, the inclusion of older homes in existing-home averages, and the heavier weight of high-price regions such as Moscow, St Petersburg and Krasnodar Territory in the new-build market. Based on this analysis, the Central Bank of Russia said existing prudential measures cover the risk that housing under construction may lose value when later sold in the existing housing market, while higher down payment requirements could be used if needed to address other risks.
Central Bank of Russia2026-06-26
Central Bank of Russia analysis puts adjusted new build housing price gap at 9% to 18% and backs tighter low down payment mortgage limits
The Central Bank of Russia said a model-based comparison puts the price gap between new and existing housing at 9%, or 18% including renovation costs, well below Rosstat’s 52% average-price gap. It said the findings support higher capital requirements and direct restrictions on mortgages with down payments below 20%. Higher down payment requirements could also be used if needed.