The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has launched the Price and Inflation Expectations Survey (PIES) data explorer, an interactive dashboard providing access to 10 years of firm-level expectations data on prices and inflation. The launch is accompanied by the first report in a new quarterly release series, summarizing survey results for the fourth quarter of 2025. PIES surveys business leaders in Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern and central Pennsylvania on expected changes in their own product prices, employee compensation, and U.S. inflation, and collects firms’ reported price changes over the past year. The tool centralizes data collected since the fourth quarter of 2015, when the questions first appeared as quarterly special questions in the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Surveys through November 2025, and allows filtering by manufacturing firms, nonmanufacturing firms, or all firms. In the fourth quarter of 2025 results, the mean forecast for firms’ own prices from the fourth quarter of 2025 through the fourth quarter of 2026 fell to 2.6% from 3.3% in the prior quarter, while firms reported mean price growth of 3.0% for the fourth quarter of 2025; expected compensation cost growth per employee remained at 3.3% through the fourth quarter of 2026; and the median expectation for U.S. inflation over the next four quarters declined to 3.0% from 3.3%. New data will be added to the PIES tool quarterly, alongside ongoing quarterly summary reports.

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