The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Center for Inflation Research published results from its Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations showing that inflation expectations among US business leaders eased in 2025 Q3. CEOs and other top executives reported expected Consumer Price Index inflation of 3.5% over the next 12 months, down from 3.9% in 2025 Q2. The quarterly survey draws on a large representative panel of manufacturing and services firms and is used to track expectations that can influence firms’ pricing decisions. SoFIE captures respondents’ expected 12-month CPI inflation each quarter and, once per year, also asks about average CPI inflation over the next five years, CPI inflation over the last 12 months, perceptions of the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, and the probability that 12-month CPI inflation over the next year will exceed 5%.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 2025-11-08
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland survey shows business leaders cut 12-month CPI inflation expectations to 3.5% in 2025 Q3
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s Center for Inflation Research reported a decrease in US business leaders' inflation expectations, with anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation at 3.5% for the next 12 months, down from 3.9% in the previous quarter. The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) gathers data from a broad panel of manufacturing and services firms to monitor inflation expectations influencing pricing decisions.