The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland published results from its Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations showing that inflation expectations among US business leaders declined in 2025:Q4. CEOs and other top executives reported in October that they expect Consumer Price Index inflation of 3.3% over the next 12 months, down from 3.5% in 2025:Q3. The quarterly survey draws on a large representative panel of firms in manufacturing and services and is reported on the basis that business leaders’ inflation expectations can influence the prices their firms charge, which can in turn affect the inflation path. SoFIE captures respondents’ beliefs about 12 month ahead CPI inflation each quarter, and once per year also asks about average CPI inflation over the next five years, CPI inflation over the last 12 months, perceptions of the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, and the probability that CPI inflation over the next 12 months will exceed 5%.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 2025-10-11
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s SoFIE shows CEOs’ 12 month CPI inflation expectations fell to 3.3% in 2025 Q4
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations shows a decline in US business leaders' inflation expectations for 2025:Q4, with a forecasted CPI inflation of 3.3% over the next 12 months, down from 3.5% in 2025:Q3. The survey, including a broad panel of manufacturing and services firms, highlights the potential impact of business leaders' expectations on pricing and inflation trends.