Bank of Indonesia published its latest Retail Sales Survey indicating retailers expect sales to increase in July 2025, with the Real Sales Index projected to rise 4.8% (yoy) to 222.5. The survey also points to a 4.0% (mtm) contraction, reflecting a post-holiday slowdown. Expected July growth is mainly driven by spare parts and accessories, food, beverages and tobacco, and automotive fuel, while the month-on-month decline is linked to weaker information and communication equipment and food, beverages and tobacco. For June 2025, the Real Sales Index was 231.9 and growth eased to 1.3% (yoy) from 1.9% in May, with a 0.2% (mtm) decline that was shallower than May’s 1.3% contraction; automotive fuel, food, beverages and tobacco, cultural and recreational goods, and clothing supported June performance. On prices, respondents expect milder inflationary pressures over the next three months, reflected in a lower Price Expectations Index for September 2025 (134.7 from 139.6), followed by stronger pressures over the next six months as the December 2025 index rose to 163.4 from 151.3.
Bank of Indonesia 2025-08-11
Bank of Indonesia Retail Sales Survey expects July 2025 Real Sales Index growth to accelerate to 4.8% year on year
Bank of Indonesia's Retail Sales Survey forecasts a 4.8% year-on-year increase in the Real Sales Index to 222.5 for July 2025, despite a 4.0% month-on-month contraction due to a post-holiday slowdown. Growth is driven by spare parts, food, and automotive fuel, while declines are linked to weaker sales in information and communication equipment. Respondents anticipate milder inflationary pressures in the short term, with the Price Expectations Index for September 2025 at 134.7, but expect stronger pressures by December 2025 as the index rises to 163.4.