The Bank of Guatemala published its June 2026 review of recent macroeconomic performance and prospects, presenting a domestic economy that continues to expand while inflation remains below target and external conditions stay uncertain. May inflation stood at 2.89%, below the bank’s 4.0% target plus or minus 1 percentage point, and the update points to a weaker 2026 bank credit outlook alongside a higher projected current account surplus. Domestic indicators in the report remained positive. The monthly economic activity index showed 4.5% annual growth and 3.9% cumulative growth through April, while the economic activity confidence index reached 55.94 in May. The bank revised its 2026 current account projection to a surplus of 4.1% of GDP from a previous 3.9% and cut its 2026 private sector bank credit growth forecast to 6.5% from 9.0% plus or minus 1 percentage point. Remittance inflows also remained strong, with the 2026 projection revised in April to USD 27.61 billion. On the external side, the update notes that tensions in the Middle East have moderated since the 19 June memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, with the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz contributing to lower oil prices, while uncertainty around the United States policy outlook and Federal Reserve rate expectations remains elevated.
Bank of Guatemala2026-06-25
Bank of Guatemala publishes June macroeconomic outlook with inflation at 2.89 percent and lower 2026 credit growth forecast
The Bank of Guatemala’s June macroeconomic outlook shows continued domestic expansion and inflation below target at 2.89% in May. It revised its 2026 private sector credit growth forecast down to 6.5% from 9.0% plus or minus 1 percentage point and raised the current account surplus projection to 4.1% of GDP from 3.9%. The update also notes easing Middle East tensions and lower oil prices, alongside persistent uncertainty around the United States outlook.