The Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM) published a Financieele Dagblad column by its chair, Laura van Geest, arguing that supervisors and forecasters need to better prepare for unexpected, low-probability shocks as US policy uncertainty rises under President Donald Trump. Van Geest warns that conventional scenario analysis can amount to extrapolating past trends and may embed assumptions about US behaviour and rule of law that could be challenged. She sketches potential economic and financial transmission channels, including a loss of confidence in the US dollar as the global reserve currency with knock-on effects such as flows into gold and bitcoin and the emergence of gold-backed digital currencies, alongside a shift towards more euro-denominated trade within the European Union. Other scenarios include impacts from expanded US fossil fuel production on energy prices and European competitiveness, heightened tension over EU rules applied to US big tech, and a looser US stance on crypto, potentially accelerating links between the traditional financial system and decentralized finance with implications for global financial stability. The column notes that it remains uncertain which statements translate into policy and how second-round effects may unfold, and frames agility as a key requirement for Europe’s response.

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