Bank of Indonesia published its latest Retail Sales Survey indicating retailers expect retail sales to rise in February 2026, with the Real Sales Index pointing to 6.9% year-on-year growth and 4.4% month-on-month growth. Respondents linked the monthly increase to seasonal demand during Ramadan and ahead of the Eid-ul-Fitr 1447 H festive period. The expected improvement is broad-based across most commodity groups, led by Spare Parts and Accessories, Other Household Equipment and Clothing. In January 2026, annual RSI growth was 5.7% year on year, while sales contracted 2.7% month on month as consumption normalised after the Christmas and New Year holiday period; annual growth was primarily supported by Cultural and Recreational Goods, Food, Beverages and Tobacco, and Clothing. On prices, respondents anticipate milder inflationary pressures over the next three months (April 2026) followed by a build-up over six months (July 2026). The Price Expectations Index for April 2026 fell to 153.9 from 175.7 in March 2026, while the July 2026 PEI is expected at 157.1 versus 156.3 in June 2026, reflecting higher prices at the start of the new academic year.
Bank of Indonesia 2026-03-10
Bank of Indonesia retail survey signals 6.9% year-on-year sales growth expected in February 2026
Bank of Indonesia’s latest Retail Sales Survey shows retailers expect February 2026 sales to rise, with the Real Sales Index indicating 6.9% year-on-year and 4.4% month-on-month growth, driven by Ramadan and Eid-ul-Fitr demand. The improvement is expected across most commodity groups, while January 2026 recorded 5.7% annual growth but a 2.7% monthly contraction as post-holiday consumption normalised. Respondents foresee milder inflationary pressures over the next three months, then a build-up over six months, with the Price Expectations Index easing into April 2026 before rising into July 2026.