Bank of Japan releases January 2026 estimates of the output gap and potential growth rate

The Bank of Japan’s Research and Statistics Department has published its latest quarterly estimates of Japan’s output gap and potential growth rate, releasing updated data and accompanying charts on its website for use in assessing economic activity and price conditions. The update reiterates that both measures are unobservable and must be estimated, with results potentially differing across estimation methods and subject to estimation errors, so the figures should be interpreted with latitude. The Bank notes that the estimates are, in principle, released on the third business day of January, April, July, and October, and references Kawamoto et al. (Bank of Japan Research Paper, May 2017) for the estimation methodology; the posted charts and data may be revised or changed without notice.