The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland has published second quarter 2026 results from its Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations showing that U.S. business leaders increased their expectations for Consumer Price Index inflation over the next 12 months to 3.7 percent, from 3.1 percent in the first quarter. The update also expands the data published on the SoFIE web page with new survey questions covering a broader set of firm and inflation-related views. The new questions add data on expectations for prices, costs, employment, wages, research and development spending, and gross domestic product growth, as well as beliefs about uncertainty within the firm’s sector, confidence in achieving the perceived inflation objective of the Federal Reserve, perceptions of the optimal inflation rate for the U.S. economy, and the probability that inflation will be below 1 percent over the next year. The quarterly survey draws on a large representative panel of manufacturing and services firms, and the Cleveland Fed has also pointed readers to a new report analyzing the latest results.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 2026-05-11
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reports second quarter business inflation expectations rose to 3.7 percent and adds new SoFIE questions
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland reported that U.S. business leaders raised their 12‑month Consumer Price Index inflation expectations to 3.7 percent in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.1 percent in the first quarter. The Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations now includes new questions on prices, costs, employment, wages, research and development spending, gross domestic product growth, sectoral uncertainty, views on the Federal Reserve’s inflation objective and optimal inflation, and the probability of sub‑1 percent inflation.