The European Central Bank published a speech by Executive Board member Philip R. Lane setting out the euro area outlook and the indicators used to assess the monetary policy stance, drawing heavily on the December 2024 Eurosystem staff projections. In the baseline projections, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation is forecast at 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, while HICP excluding energy and food is projected at 2.9% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026-27. Real GDP growth is projected at 0.7% in 2024, 1.1% in 2025, 1.4% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, alongside slowing labour-cost growth (compensation per employee from 4.6% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2027, and unit labour costs from 4.7% to 2.0%). The presentation also covered money and credit developments, bank funding costs and lending standards, external trade indicators, fiscal projections, and market- and survey-based measures of inflation expectations.
European Central Bank 2025-01-14
European Central Bank publishes Lane speech outlining staff projections for euro area inflation to return near 2%
The European Central Bank released a speech by Executive Board member Philip R. Lane outlining the euro area outlook, based on December 2024 Eurosystem staff projections. Key forecasts include HICP inflation at 2.4% in 2024, decreasing to 2.1% by 2027, and real GDP growth rising from 0.7% in 2024 to 1.3% in 2027. The speech also addressed money and credit developments, bank funding costs, lending standards, and inflation expectations.