The National Bank of Bulgaria has published issue 4/2025 of its quarterly Economic Review, analysing key trends in the Bulgarian economy using macroeconomic indicators available as of 16 January 2026. The review highlights a moderation in annual economic activity growth to 3.0% in the third quarter of 2025 and an acceleration in Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices inflation to 3.5% in December 2025. In Q3 2025, private consumption grew strongly, while the negative contribution of net exports widened and government consumption growth slowed. Labour market conditions remained tight, with employment up 2.3% year on year, but real compensation per employee growth easing to 4.3% despite strong labour demand. For Q4 2025, short-term indicators sent mixed signals, but overall pointed to private consumption remaining the main driver of quarter-on-quarter real GDP growth, expected to be close to the previous quarter. Along the supply chain, price increases were observed in Q3 2025 but fed through only to a limited extent into HICP inflation, which rose from 2.1% at end-2024 to 3.5% in December 2025, driven mainly by services and food and by a diminishing negative contribution from energy products; rising unit labour costs and strong private consumption were cited as enabling firms to pass higher costs on to consumers.
National Bank of Bulgaria 2026-02-18
National Bank of Bulgaria publishes Economic Review pointing to 3.0% GDP growth in Q3 2025 and HICP inflation at 3.5%
The National Bank of Bulgaria's Economic Review 4/2025 reports a moderation in annual economic growth to 3.0% in Q3 2025 and an acceleration in Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices inflation to 3.5% in December 2025. Private consumption remained robust, while net exports negatively impacted growth and government consumption slowed. Rising unit labour costs and strong private consumption allowed firms to pass higher costs to consumers, contributing to inflation.