The National Bank of Ukraine published its November Business Outlook Survey showing businesses had guarded expectations for current economic performance, with the composite business activity expectations index (BAEI) slipping to 49.4 from 50.3 in October and moving below the neutral 50 threshold. Respondents pointed to intensified aerial attacks on critical infrastructure, power outages, rising input and wage costs, logistics constraints and shortages of qualified staff as key drags, partly offset by robust consumer demand, budget spending on infrastructure repairs and road construction, and steadily decelerating inflation. Sector results were mixed. Trading companies remained the most optimistic with an index of 53.8, expecting higher trade turnover and purchases for resale while reporting weaker sentiment on stocks and more pronounced intentions to cut margins. Construction stayed at a neutral 50.0, with expectations for continued growth in activity and materials purchases but a significant seasonal drop in new orders, alongside continued intentions to purchase contractor services. Services remained slightly below neutral at 49.1 as security conditions, outages and costlier logistics weighed, while industry was the weakest at 46.8, with expectations for falling output and new orders including exports. Pricing and employment intentions also diverged: industry and construction expected slower supplier price growth and were less inclined to raise selling prices, while trade and services reported firm intentions to increase selling prices; only trade planned net hiring, while industry, services and construction signalled workforce reductions. The survey covered 592 companies polled from 4–21 November 2025, and the NBU noted the results reflect respondents’ views rather than the central bank’s assessments. Results for the December 2025 survey are due on the first business day of January 2026.
National Bank of Ukraine 2025-12-01
National Bank of Ukraine reports November business activity expectations index falling to 49.4 as attacks and power outages weigh on firms
The National Bank of Ukraine's November Business Outlook Survey showed a decline in the composite business activity expectations index to 49.4, below the neutral threshold of 50, due to intensified aerial attacks and rising costs. Sector results varied, with trading companies optimistic, while industry showed the weakest performance. The survey, covering 592 companies, highlighted differing pricing and employment intentions across sectors.