The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released its Texas Employment Forecast projecting that Texas jobs will increase 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 percent to 2.4 percent. The forecast implies 264,300 jobs will be added this year, bringing total employment to 14.6 million in December 2026. The estimate is based on an average of four models that incorporate projected national gross domestic product, oil futures prices, and the Texas and U.S. leading indexes. Separate monthly data in the release showed Texas employment grew at an annualized 1.2 percent in May, adding 14,400 jobs, after April growth was revised up to 2.2 percent. In commentary accompanying the release, Dallas Fed senior business economist Luis Torres said year-to-date job growth of 1.6 percent remains below the state's long-run average of 2 percent, while relatively high oil prices have supported activity and hiring in oil and gas even as immigration policies and productivity trends have affected labor supply and demand in some sectors. The Texas statewide unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent in May. Metro unemployment rates increased in Brownsville-Harlingen and Corpus Christi, decreased in Amarillo and Odessa, and were unchanged in most major metros, including Austin-Round Rock, Dallas-Plano-Irving, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas2026-06-23
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecasts Texas job growth of 1.8 percent in 2026
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecast Texas employment growth of 1.8 percent in 2026, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 percent to 2.4 percent. That implies about 264,300 additional jobs and total employment of 14.6 million by December 2026. May job growth slowed to an annualized 1.2 percent, while the statewide unemployment rate held at 4.3 percent.