National Bank of Ukraine reports business expectations return to growth in May with BAEI rising to 50.8

The National Bank of Ukraine published its May 2025 Business Outlook Survey, showing businesses returning to a positive economic outlook. The composite business activity expectations index (BAEI) increased to 50.8 from 49.4 in April, and all surveyed sectors recorded readings above the neutral level of 50 for the first time since May 2024, supported by robust consumer demand, a stable energy sector, international financial assistance and seasonal factors, alongside ongoing constraints from intensified attacks on critical facilities, exchange-rate and inflation expectations and shortages of skilled workers. Construction firms reported the most optimistic outlook, with the sector index rising to 51.5 (from 47.3), and expectations for higher construction volumes, more new orders and increased purchases of inputs and contractor services. Industry remained positive for a fourth consecutive month (51.1), with respondents upbeat on output and new orders but still pessimistic about unfinished products and inventories; trade stayed positive for a third month (50.3) but with weaker expectations for turnover and purchases and continued intentions to cut margins; services returned to positive territory (50.9) as logistics improved and demand rebounded. Firms in industry, trade and services expected slower growth in purchase prices and indicated less firm intentions to raise selling prices, while construction companies anticipated stronger price growth; hiring intentions were positive in construction but negative in other sectors. The NBU noted the findings reflect respondents’ opinions and are not NBU assessments. The survey was conducted from 5 May to 23 May 2025 among 565 companies. Results for the June 2025 survey are due on the first business day of July 2025.