Central Bank of Nigeria publishes Q3 2025 economic report with 3.98% growth, inflation at 20.98% and reserves at USD 42.77bn

The Central Bank of Nigeria published its Third Quarter 2025 Economic Report, outlining continued domestic expansion alongside disinflation and an improved external position. The report puts real GDP growth at 3.98% in Q3 2025, with headline inflation moderating to 20.98%, while external reserves rose to USD 42.77 billion and the naira appreciated by 3.94% to an average of NGN 1,521.11/USD at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market. Growth was driven by the non-oil sector, which grew 3.91% and contributed 3.78 percentage points to GDP growth, while the oil sector grew 5.84% but crude oil production fell to 1.44 million barrels per day excluding condensates, and 1.64 million barrels per day including condensates. Provisional gross federation revenue increased 43.56% quarter on quarter to NGN 11.93 trillion, with non-oil sources contributing 70.50%, while consolidated public debt rose slightly to NGN 152.40 trillion (33.98% of GDP) and remained below the 40.00% national debt threshold. On monetary and market conditions, broad money (M3) expanded 3.91% from end-December 2024, driven solely by a 30.35% rise in net foreign assets, while total credit by other depository corporations declined 1.93% to NGN 57.04 trillion; the report also notes that the Monetary Policy Rate and standing facilities corridor were adjusted at the September 2025 Monetary Policy Committee meeting to 27.00% and +250/-250 basis points. In its outlook, the report projects global growth at 3.20% in 2025 and anticipates further moderation in domestic inflation in the medium term, while flagging risks including security challenges, elevated input costs and external shocks.