Bank of Indonesia released its Retail Sales Survey indicating that retailers expect sales to rise in November 2025, with the Real Sales Index (RSI) projected to grow 5.9% year on year, up from 4.3% in October. On a month-on-month basis, respondents forecast 1.1% growth in November, supported by a seasonal increase in demand ahead of the Christmas and New Year period. The pick-up in expected annual growth was led by Other Household Equipment, Cultural and Recreational Goods, Spare Parts and Accessories, and Food, Beverages and Tobacco. October 2025 results showed RSI growth of 4.3% year on year (from 3.7% a month earlier) and 0.6% month on month, with gains attributed to Cultural and Recreational Goods and Food, Beverages and Tobacco, alongside smoother distribution of goods. On prices, respondents anticipate inflationary pressures building over the next three months, with the Price Expectations Index (PEI) for January 2026 rising to 163.2 from 157.2, linked to higher raw material costs, wages, Value Added Tax (VAT) and demand ahead of Ramadan 1447 H. Price pressures were expected to be milder over the next six months, with the PEI for April 2026 at 161.7, down from 172.5, as demand is projected to normalize after the Eid-ul-Fitr period.
Bank of Indonesia 2025-12-10
Bank of Indonesia Retail Sales Survey projects November 2025 sales growth accelerating to 5.9% year on year
Bank of Indonesia's Retail Sales Survey forecasts a 5.9% year-on-year increase in the Real Sales Index (RSI) for November 2025, up from 4.3% in October, driven by seasonal demand. Respondents also anticipate rising inflationary pressures, with the Price Expectations Index (PEI) for January 2026 increasing to 163.2 due to higher raw material costs and demand ahead of Ramadan. However, price pressures should ease by April 2026 as demand normalizes post-Eid-ul-Fitr.