The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland published results from its Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) showing that inflation expectations among US business leaders declined in 2025 Q1. CEOs and other top executives reported in January 2025 that they expect Consumer Price Index inflation to be 3.2% over the next 12 months, down from 3.8% reported in October 2024. SoFIE is a quarterly survey of a large, representative panel of firms in the manufacturing and services sectors and is published by the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research. Each quarter, the survey captures respondents’ expected CPI inflation over the next 12 months; once per year it also asks about expected average CPI inflation over the next five years, CPI inflation over the past 12 months, perceptions of the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, and the probability that CPI inflation over the next 12 months will exceed 5%.
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 2025-02-10
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland survey shows CEO 12-month CPI inflation expectations fell to 3.2% in 2025 Q1
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's Survey of Firms’ Inflation Expectations (SoFIE) shows a decline in inflation expectations among US business leaders for Q1 2025. CEOs and top executives now anticipate a 3.2% Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation over the next 12 months, down from 3.8% in October 2024. The quarterly survey, conducted by the Cleveland Fed’s Center for Inflation Research, gathers insights from firms in the manufacturing and services sectors.