The Central Bank of Slovenia has added a new GDP nowcasting tool to its website and begun publishing a weekly GDP nowcast for Slovenia, providing an up-to-date estimate of current economic growth based on high-frequency data ahead of the first official quarterly GDP release. The nowcast is automatically updated every Friday morning using the latest available data and displays both the average estimate and a range across different model specifications, where a wider range indicates greater uncertainty. The quarterly nowcast draws on 70 model specifications and more than one hundred time series across daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly frequencies, including indicators on economic activity, sentiment surveys, labour markets, balance of payments, financial markets, prices and conditions in Slovenia’s main export markets. The central bank notes the nowcast can differ materially from official GDP due to differences between monthly activity data and quarterly national accounts, higher volatility that reduces the reliability of linear models, and revisions or differing seasonal adjustment approaches. The Central Bank of Slovenia plans to expand its website over time with additional analytical tools of a similar nature.

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