The OECD, jointly with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, has published the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, setting out a baseline in which global agricultural and aquatic food production rises 13.3% over the next decade, largely through productivity gains rather than land expansion. On that basis, real international agricultural commodity prices are projected to remain broadly stable at or below current levels, while average gross per capita agricultural incomes increase by 9% by 2035. The report also stresses that these averages mask large regional gaps and persistent volatility, including a one-in-four chance that gross agricultural income per worker in 2035 is at least 12% below the baseline and that the fall could exceed 20% in low-income countries. The baseline assumes policies in place at the end of December 2025 remain unchanged. Middle-income economies in Asia-Pacific, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America are expected to drive most output growth, while lower middle-income countries continue to diversify diets toward more livestock and fish products. Direct greenhouse gas emissions from crop and livestock production are projected to rise 6.5% by 2035, with livestock contributing about 77% of the increase and synthetic fertilisers about 23%. A supplementary scenario linked to the 2026 Middle East conflict finds that weaker global growth and higher energy and fertiliser costs would cut fertiliser use and cereal production, especially in low-income countries, and worsen food security through higher prices, lower purchasing power, reduced stocks and shifts toward cheaper diets. The report also points to a growing reliance on trade to balance regional supply and demand, with sub-Saharan Africa and the Near East and North Africa expected to increase net imports of basic food commodities over the outlook period.
OECD2026-06-29
OECD and FAO publish agricultural outlook projecting 9 percent rise in farm incomes and 6.5 percent increase in direct emissions by 2035
OECD and FAO have published the Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, projecting 13.3% growth in global agricultural output, broadly stable real commodity prices and a 9% increase in average gross per capita agricultural incomes by 2035. The report also projects a 6.5% rise in direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions and warns that low-income countries remain most exposed to income volatility and to higher energy and fertiliser costs under an adverse scenario tied to the 2026 Middle East conflict.