The Central Bank of Russia has released programme codes for its projection models, adding to the model descriptions it published earlier and giving researchers tools to analyse the regulator’s macroeconomic modelling framework. The codes cover the Quarterly Projection Model for Russia with the Labour Market Component and the Quarterly Projection Model used by the Bank of Russia Research and Forecasting Department. The release is intended to facilitate analysis of model structure, including how macroeconomic indicators interact under different assumptions about transmission mechanism parameters. The Central Bank of Russia cautioned that results produced using the published codes should not be treated as its official forecast, which combines model-based calculations with expert judgements and is presented as a consensual view of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors and used in key rate decision-making.
Central Bank of Russia 2025-04-02
Central Bank of Russia publishes programme codes for its quarterly projection macroeconomic models
The Central Bank of Russia has released programme codes for its projection models, enhancing transparency in its macroeconomic modelling framework. The codes cover the Quarterly Projection Model for Russia with the Labour Market Component and the model used by the Bank of Russia Research and Forecasting Department. The bank advises that results from these codes are not its official forecast, which includes expert judgements and informs key rate decisions.