The National Bank of Georgia has published updated macroeconomic scenarios for International Financial Reporting Standard 9 to support financial institutions’ credit risk assessments and expected credit loss estimates. The update is intended to improve the transparency, consistency and comparability of IFRS 9 reporting and to provide institutions with timely macroeconomic information amid geopolitical uncertainty. The bank also notes that the scenarios are risk scenarios for reporting purposes, not its forecasts. The scenarios are built around assumptions on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East and the pace at which Georgia’s economic potential normalizes. In the baseline scenario, economic growth is driven by high-productivity sectors and external demand, while medium-term growth is shaped by the normalization of those factors. The optimistic scenario assumes a rapid end to the conflict and lower market uncertainty. The pessimistic scenario focuses on a longer conflict than in the baseline, with risks from global supply chain disruption and tighter financial conditions. Under IFRS 9, institutions should incorporate expected macroeconomic and financial trends, along with local and global risks, into credit risk assessments so that credit losses are recognized in a timely way.
National Bank of Georgia2026-06-26
National Bank of Georgia updates IFRS 9 macroeconomic scenarios around Middle East conflict and Georgia growth normalization
The National Bank of Georgia has updated its IFRS 9 macroeconomic scenarios to support financial institutions’ expected credit loss assessments and improve the consistency and comparability of reporting. The scenarios are driven mainly by assumptions about the duration of the Middle East conflict and the pace of normalization in Georgia’s economic potential. They are not forecasts, but risk scenarios for IFRS 9 reporting.